A homeowner looking to sell in order to buy a larger property today faces a losing calculation: their old low-rate mortgage, taken out before 2023, costs them less than any new loan. As a result, they remain stagnant, and their property never returns to the market. This phenomenon explains a significant part of the current tension on the supply side in the existing market.
Homeowners trapped by their old mortgage: the invisible brake on the market
According to data reported by the Banque de France, first-time buyers now represent 44.6% of the mortgage credit production, compared to 38.7% for second-time buyers. The gap is significant.
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In practical terms, households that already own property remain trapped by their old low-rate mortgages. Selling to buy elsewhere would require taking out a new loan under less favorable conditions, making the financial operation absurd for many of them.
This blockage has a chain effect: properties that should have fed the resale market are not coming through. Buyers looking for a T3 or a family home find themselves facing a reduced supply, even in areas where demand is picking up again. We are closely monitoring this phenomenon in the news on the BTB Immobilier website, which regularly details the local evolution of available stocks.
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This gap between active first-time buyers and immobile second-time buyers creates a two-speed market. The former benefit from the expanded PTZ and the stabilization of rates to get started. The latter are waiting for a hypothetical drop that would make changing loans less penalizing.
Mortgage rates mid-2026: stabilization on the surface, tightening behind the scenes
Displayed rates have remained stable for several months, giving the impression of a calm market on the financing side. The reality on the ground is more nuanced.
Banks have reopened the floodgates for solid applications (substantial down payment, comfortable remaining income, long-term contracts), but average profiles are facing stricter filtering than a year ago. The usury rate, although relaxed, remains a constraint for borrowers with little down payment or irregular income.
What we also observe is a change in the commercial strategy of banking institutions. Some prioritize attracting new clients (the famous first-time buyers) rather than refinancing. Feedback on this point varies by region, but the trend is clear in major metropolitan areas.
- Applications with more than 15% personal contribution receive significantly better conditions, sometimes with a discount on the standard rate.
- Borrowers without a down payment see their applications delayed in processing time, if they are not simply rejected.
- Rental investors face stricter debt criteria, with banks now factoring in the risk of rental vacancy in their calculations.
Real estate prices in France: a stabilization that masks disparities between cities
The prevailing discourse speaks of price stabilization, which is generally true at the national level. According to Foncia, prices in the existing market have slightly increased in the first half of the year. After marked declines in 2023-2024, we are at a plateau.
The volume of transactions has increased by about 8% compared to the first half of 2024 according to the same sources. The sold areas are also increasing, with a notable rise in Île-de-France (around 10% in square meters sold). This resurgence in activity does not translate everywhere into rising prices.
Paris remains a special case, with adjustments still ongoing in certain districts. Well-connected medium-sized cities (TGV, dynamic employment basin) are capturing some of the demand that no longer finds satisfaction in the metropolises. Conversely, rural areas without transport infrastructure remain excluded from the recovery.
Sales timelines have stabilized around three months on average, confirming that the market has regained a more normal operating rhythm. A properly valued property in a sought-after area sells without major difficulty.
Housing bill project 2026: what changes for landlords and tenants
The regulatory aspect deserves attention, as it concretely modifies the obligations of landlord owners. The housing bill project examined in 2026 particularly strengthens the landlord’s obligation regarding renovation work.
In practice, a landlord renting out a property classified F or G in the energy performance diagnosis (DPE) will have to undertake energy renovation work to keep their property on the rental market. Sanctions for non-compliance are becoming clearer, and tenants have new legal levers to demand compliance with standards.
- Standard rental contracts include new clauses regarding the energy status of the property.
- The status of private landlord, currently being created, could offer tax incentives to owners who engage in renovation.
- Co-ownership rules are also evolving, with a strengthening of obligations stemming from the ALUR law for older buildings.
For rental investors in the existing market with renovation work, these developments create both a constraint and an opportunity. A property renovated to current standards rents out faster and justifies a higher rent, provided the costs and timelines of the projects are anticipated.
The French real estate market in 2026 cannot be reduced to a price curve or an average rate. The dynamics rely on less visible mechanisms: the blockage of second-time buyers, reinforced banking filtering, marked geographical disparities, and a tightening regulatory framework for landlords. Understanding these levers allows for better-calibrated purchasing or investment decisions than those based solely on macroeconomic indicators.